Is Taiwan Next?

[Nilgiri]

you know it feels like most of smaller countries will pursue WMDs as they are the best deterrence against the far bigger and far stronger enemy . The concept of MAD works pretty well when you have huge conventional disparity

@T-123456 @Nilgiri what are your views ?

Such a thing would be done extremely discreetly, probably in concert with the Japanese approach/appetite for it. (ROC and JPN are becoming significantly closer behind the scenes).

In the interim, Taiwan likely will develop a fairly potent ballistic + cruise missile + stand off capability given PLA reliance on certain harbours and staging grounds (watching the video in this thread at post 6 is recommended too):

PLA Taiwan Scenario questions

Anyone on this forum actually from Taiwan? Im working on a complex scenario and deep dive into PLAs ability to actually invade Taiwan. This, as you can imagine, is quite the process. As a work up to this scenario i was hoping to talk with someone from Taiwan i could bounce elements of the...

defencehub.live

Developing a sound capability there means a high deterrence achieved as only a pyrrhic victory would be left on the table for PLA.

i.e along the potential (non-pyrrhic) ladder

1) Prevent/dissuading dieppes from happening in first place

2) Turn each potential D-Day into a Dieppe as far as possible (i.e sustained interdiction realisation all along the staging and conveyance)

3) Have the robust capability to confront each successful D-Day (like that video goes into depth) and wargame it extensively

1 and 2 can achieve an economy of scale with cooperation with Japan (given its Navy especially) without needing USN to commit and risk....as the US is turning into an X-factor rather than an assured one like before.

The PLA will be wargaming all of this on their end too.

Overall though CCP will not want a pyrrhic victory and that is what constrains their hand on this matter to begin with right now....and for this decade.

They might have sufficient non-pyrrhic capability for it 2030 onwards....so this analysis will need to be revisited maybe each year.

The political factor can be summarised overall by the trust-deficit CCP has now unlocked in Taiwan well past the earlier situation (because of CCP actions in HK).

This has put the (more CCP friendly) KMT completely out of the political picture on Taiwan and DPP strengthening its hand there.

One look at what "that lady" Tsai Ing Wen prompts with certain troll brigades (in an especial distasteful manner)....is just the top most layer accessible to lot of laypeople....but indicative of things going quite wrong on this front for CCP at large.

This all gives Taiwan a new fresh direction in developing its non-pyrrhic capability (i.e below WMD) to begin with so one does not need to hedge insufficiently on WMD only (very risky).

Might give a few more thoughts later maybe.

@Joe Shearer

 

[kimov]

oh in that case I have to dissapoint, it will be sweden that will see the heat

Looking at relative sizes today one might conclude that Russia have been belligerent through history against Sweden but actual history show that Russia have never engaged in a war in current Swedish borders but only on Swedish colonies (Åland/Finland/Baltic countries/Russian territories). On the other side, Sweden/Vikings have attacked and occupied Russian land on multiple times through history for about +1000 year. Sweds were even in Istanbul as "guest" (Charles Demirbaş) after one such incident in Poltava, Ukraine far away from Swedish borders. So, I don't think Russians are very interested in Swedish forests as they have plenty of similar forest themselves.

 

[TR_123456]

Lets stay on topic.

 

[LegionnairE]

Afghanistan proved that america isn't a threat anymore.

This will make american allies everywhere very vulnerable.

Next to be attacked can very well be Taiwan.

 

[what]

We have one Chinese saying one thing in here and many outsiders saying the opposite. I doubt that China will do anything, Taiwan is not worth the risks.

Russia was already sanctioned and is building a second Iron Curtain. China is very much export focused and relies on trade.

 

[Gary]

We have to wait and see but in my opinion,if China wants to do it,now is the time.

very premature

 

[Joe Shearer]

Such a thing would be done extremely discreetly, probably in concert with the Japanese approach/appetite for it. (ROC and JPN are becoming significantly closer behind the scenes).

In the interim, Taiwan likely will develop a fairly potent ballistic + cruise missile + stand off capability given PLA reliance on certain harbours and staging grounds (watching the video in this thread at post 6 is recommended too):

PLA Taiwan Scenario questions

Anyone on this forum actually from Taiwan? Im working on a complex scenario and deep dive into PLAs ability to actually invade Taiwan. This, as you can imagine, is quite the process. As a work up to this scenario i was hoping to talk with someone from Taiwan i could bounce elements of the...

defencehub.live

Developing a sound capability there means a high deterrence achieved as only a pyrrhic victory would be left on the table for PLA.

i.e along the potential (non-pyrrhic) ladder

1) Prevent/dissuading dieppes from happening in first place

2) Turn each potential D-Day into a Dieppe as far as possible (i.e sustained interdiction realisation all along the staging and conveyance)

3) Have the robust capability to confront each successful D-Day (like that video goes into depth) and wargame it extensively

1 and 2 can achieve an economy of scale with cooperation with Japan (given its Navy especially) without needing USN to commit and risk....as the US is turning into an X-factor rather than an assured one like before.

The PLA will be wargaming all of this on their end too.

Overall though CCP will not want a pyrrhic victory and that is what constrains their hand on this matter to begin with right now....and for this decade.

They might have sufficient non-pyrrhic capability for it 2030 onwards....so this analysis will need to be revisited maybe each year.

The political factor can be summarised overall by the trust-deficit CCP has now unlocked in Taiwan well past the earlier situation (because of CCP actions in HK).

This has put the (more CCP friendly) KMT completely out of the political picture on Taiwan and DPP strengthening its hand there.

One look at what "that lady" Tsai Ing Wen prompts with certain troll brigades (in an especial distasteful manner)....is just the top most layer accessible to lot of laypeople....but indicative of things going quite wrong on this front for CCP at large.

This all gives Taiwan a new fresh direction in developing its non-pyrrhic capability (i.e below WMD) to begin with so one does not need to hedge insufficiently on WMD only (very risky).

Might give a few more thoughts later maybe.

@Joe Shearer

At the brute level, it is difficult to avoid the possibility that all this has developed over the last 6 months as a collaborative effort by the Russians and the Chinese. This has been, sadly, out of sight of the world, particularly opaque to American intelligence, that has shown itself to be consistently and almost systematically wrong over nearly the last century.

If the Russian calculations are correct, and if their aggression in the Ukraine is successful, then there is little incentive for China to hold back.

It is also relevant to note that without careful preparation, this mischief might not have been possible. Without Chinese commitment to buy Russian gas, this would not have happened.

 

[xizhimen]

It is also relevant to note that without careful preparation, this mischief might not have been possible. Without Chinese commitment to buy Russian gas, this would not have happened.

It's always easy to blame others, I don't think Chinese government deep inside wants to see what Russia is doing now, both China and Ukraine are China's good friends, but facing the mounting pressure from increasingly anti China policies by the west, they didn't leave China a choice, I think Russia may feel the same way, it's the arrogant and rabic western policies agaisnt China and Russia brought this disaster.

China is a much more liberal country now than what she was during the US China honeymoon time during the late 1970's and early 1980's, has much more freedom and human rights, but now China is a direct threat to US century old unrivaled global domination, this is something US can never tolerate. US never cares human rights or freedom, they only care about their global domination.

 

[xizhimen]

Don't conveniently forget a hard fact, it was US who deserted Taiwan first, cut off diplomatic relations with Taiwan and welcomed PRC to join UN, as long as it serves US interests, anyone can be trash to throw away at any moment.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Don't conveniently forget a hard fact, it was US who deserted Taiwan first, cut off diplomatic relations with Taiwan and welcomed PRC to join UN, as long as it serves US interests, anyone can be trash to throw away at any moment.

It's always easy to blame others, I don't think Chinese government deep inside wants to see what Russia is doing now, both China and Ukraine are China's good friends, but facing the mounting pressure from increasingly anti China policies by the west, they didn't leave China a choice, I think Russia may feel the same way, it's the arrogant and rabic western policies agaisnt China and Russia brought this disaster.

China is a much more liberal country now than what she was during the US China honeymoon time during the late 1970's and early 1980's, has much more freedom and human rights, but now China is a direct threat to US century old unrivaled global domination, this is something US can never tolerate. US never cares human rights or freedom, they only care about their global domination.

Both very sensible points, subject to consideration and validation.

Thank you for making them. They are thought-provoking.

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

A lot here is being talked about Taiwan's capability to defend itself against a seaborne invasion, but how willing are they to do so? Should China really invade and put it's full military might behind it, then how many will fight and how many will consider the situation hopeless and give up without a fight?

 

[Joe Shearer]

A lot here is being talked about Taiwan's capability to defend itself against a seaborne invasion, but how willing are they to do so? Should China really invade and put it's full military might behind it, then how many will fight and how many will consider the situation hopeless and give up without a fight?

What is the difficulty ?

Catch a Taiwanese. Pinch his arm very hard.

If he winces, they will not resist.

 

[xizhimen]

A lot here is being talked about Taiwan's capability to defend itself against a seaborne invasion, but how willing are they to do so? Should China really invade and put it's full military might behind it, then how many will fight and how many will consider the situation hopeless and give up without a fight?

Taiwan TV street interview: How Taiwanese youth think about "2 years Mandatory Military Service law"

Replies are: It's useless, people will refuse to go to war anyway.
It's waste of time, it's just like a summer camp.
We'll just die if going to a war, there's zero chance we can win a war over mainland China.
Military training won't save our lives, and Taiwan's people are not united.

Question: If Taiwan goes to war with mainland China, would you like to join and fight?
Reply: Certainly not, I'll find a place to hide
We can fight but it's meaningless, we can never win.
No one likes to go to war...
Young people don't want to go to war and don't want to waste such a long time on military service
I won't, I don't want to die. Life is meant for more meaningful things.

In the end of the interview, the host shows the answers for the 5 quesions on board, the most chosen one is: "Come on, stop fooling around, what's the point for this conscription law when no one wants to fight and no one wants to go to war?"

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

Thanks for the replies, it's what I suspected. The arms sales are then a waste of money/easy profit for US arms companies.
@Joe Shearer @beijingwalker

 

[xizhimen]

 

[xizhimen]

In those Taiwan street interviews, they all believe the chance for a war is extremely small, on this point, the public opinions between mainland China and Taiwan are the same. Chinese know Chinese.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Interesting, very logically put together, with concrete evidence, rather than speculation and head-games, but ultimately not conclusive.

If I were presenting the case for an invasion of Taiwan being quite easy, what would I present?

Would I present that it would be a bitter, bloody, hard-fought battle house to house, street to street, with people - civilians - dying rather than giving up an inch?

Would I present that it would not be resisted very seriously, that people really wanted peace and prosperity, and that if it were to be wrested away from them, they would reconcile themselves to it, and move on?

 

[Joe Shearer]

Thanks for the replies, it's what I suspected. The arms sales are then a waste of money/easy profit for US arms companies.
@Joe Shearer @beijingwalker

Quite right.

Not worth fighting.

The best course of action is probably for Taiwan to declare its readiness to a negotiated future, and to invite the PRC representatives to a meeting to discuss the detailed plan of work.

 

[xizhimen]

Biden's recent stance saying Ukraine is not a Nato member so it's not US and Nato's responsibility, what Taiwan may feel at this chilling message?

 

[McCool]

The Ukraine air force surprisingly stays intact as well as its air defense after the Russian missile onslaught. They myth that China could disable Taiwan air force and air defense are already broken in Ukraine.

Expecting Taiwan air force to give a bloody fight in the airspace of the Taiwan strait.