Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Turko]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380473217652035586

Reminds of WWI, Yavuz & Midilli.

War breaks out, they need to stay in black-sea longer than the time limit given in montreux, transferred to Turkey to by-pass it (wild imaginations).

But repelling US Navy is not Turkey's responsibility. Russians would expect from us just not to allow passing more US ships

 

[Glass🚬]

We are speaking about a country which has been independent just for 30 years.
how could a country liberated from Russian imperialism immediately have created a national consciousness?

As i said before , Ukraine follows the path as same as Poland became independent and developed with the help of USA/ EU/NATO.

It doesnt matter if Ukraine had a national consciousness or not, if the leaders of that country were able to think rationally 30 years ago they would have foreseen changing balances which would pull Ukraine into a possible conflict with its neighboors one way another.

 

[Agha Sher]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380444645243633664

This is the 3rd crash in recent days And you believe these drunk rats could put up any serious resistance to NATO?

 

[Turko]

It doesnt matter if Ukraine had a national consciousness or not, if the leaders of that country were able to think rationally 30 years ago they would have foreseen changing balances which would pull Ukraine into a possible conflict with its neighboors one way another.

First presidents and governments also used to be USSR heritage. Most of them were former members of communist party.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380443058773327874

 

[Combat-Master]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380467009356509185

 

[Bosanski Vojnik]

There are some wild claims circulating online (even from decent well educated analysts) who claim that Russia is gearing for a full invasion of Ukraine including capturing the capital city Kiev. Absolutely ridicules and laughable imo

Unless Russia has some game changing weapons technology nobody has heard of or uses Nuclear and/or Chemical weapons there is no way they could inflict such heavy losses on the Ukrainian army and Militia forces to capture large cities such as Kiev, Odessa or Dnipropetrovsk should an invasion of such magnitude happen. Such a thing would start world war 3 and basically allow the US/Israel to the same to Iran and other countries they have problems with such as Syria, Lebanon and North Korea etc..

Also Russia will have no justification to use Nuclear weapons unless Ukraine starts lobbing Scud Missiles into Moscow. Which we all know is not going to happen. For Russia to fully take over Ukraine conventionally they would have to at least use 300,000 regulars and back that up with a Reserve force of about another 500.000. That is about 800 000 for a near peer conflict. This wont be like US led coalition in Iraq which in 2003 fought against a much more poorly equipped and poorly motivated foe and won by using around 350 000 troops on the ground.

Hell they may even need up to a million men to be honest. Just not gonna happen not to mention the heavy losses they will inevitably take if such an event was to occur which would no doubt allow for security vacuum to develop in North Caucuses and other areas

I personally believe that Russia wants to establish a land connection between Donbass, Crimea and Transnistria. They have no interest in taking Kiev but the Black sea coast is very attractive and reasonably achievable position for the Russians. Moscow probably realises that most logical objective is to use a further invasion of Ukraine as a bargaining chip for negotiations - Invade parts of the country and simply tell the west it is for "security reasons" (not an outright invasion) and that Russian forces would pull back if Ukrainians sign a capitulation treaty which gives Russia increase say in the country's affairs and a block on further Euro-Atlantic integration (Basically another Kazakhstan).

I have uploaded a map which basically gives in my opinion a more realistic political/military goal for Russian forces should they invade Ukraine:

As you can see from the red lines I have drawn these seem like more logical and obtainable goals. The Russians would push from Crimea, Donbass and maybe even Transnistria to capture Coastal Ukraine and parts of Eastern Ukraine to move the frontline from Donetsk and Luhansk as much as possible. The red lines from the north would be a push from Belarus which most likely would be a diversionary tactic to confuse and startle Ukranian forces from the real Moscow objectives.

I think Russians would bypass Odessa as simply encircling it would be enough for them. The space to the south of Moldova would probably be seen as dead space and not in interest of Russian forces to take over as Ground Forces long range Artillery, Drones and Aircraft of RF would be enough for asset denial in that tiny region. Same goes for Areas of North-East Ukraine as Asset denial is all that is logically needed for Russians and not troops on the ground.

Basically in other words. I firmly believe that Russia wants to occupy parts of Ukraine (not the whole country) whilst at the same time doing all they can to minimalize their own losses. Russia does not want to invade the Ukrainian Nation but to bully them into becoming another one of their client states like Kazakhstan is today for example.

Question is how will the NATO powers react to such a move? That is one area Moscow may not be able to logically explain..

 

[TheInsider]

Russia will invade Ukrainian lands east of Dnepr if Ukraine moves to liberate Donbass. Russia wants a land connection to Crimea and also want to secure water sources for Crimea. East of Kherson will probably be the new border if Ukrain tries to liberate Donbas.

 

[Glass🚬]

Interesting, seems like the Russian bots are working their night shift right ahead of zelenskys visit

#128MilyarDolarNerede trending on twitter, question fully legit but the time? Rather interesting. What the Russians however dont understand or dont want to understand is that we are no longer in a time period where disinformation will simply accepted.

 

[Zafer]

I hope that people will understand this , usa and russian is working on that , they want Ukraine to be destroyed , because they dont want ukraine to reach a point of developing military technology since they have a great base for that , they were always silent , but now when they saw turkey and ukraine getting together things start to escalate , why ?! , Its obvious , because if turkey and ukraine will work together on weapons it will be a rival power to the west and a greater challenger to the arms sale .
I know that i am not a leader in this game , but i think turkey should stand still with ukraine because if ukraine lose and get occupied by russia turkey will be next .
I dont know why people dont understand this , mainly turkish people , they always talk about why we are going to war abroad , we have a problem we dpnt learn from the history .
I hope that soon we will see results and the system of the world should get changed because it is the same system after ww2 .
Its time to change

Turkey does not depend on Ukraine for technology acquisition. Ukraine can only help with a few years of head start in several areas. Russia does not have the strength to capture to hold a big chunk of Ukraine let alone targeting Turkey.

 

[Turko]

There are seven attacks in Donbass per day, there is a wounded





The day before, a soldier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was wounded by shrapnel. From the beginning of the new day, the separatists also opened fire.

Over the past day in the Donbas, seven violations of the ceasefire by mercenaries were recorded, of which six attacks and one remote mining with POM-2 mines. One Ukrainian soldier was wounded. This was announced on Saturday, April 10, at the press center of the Joint Forces operation headquarters.

In particular, the enemy opened fire from 82-caliber mortars, grenade launchers of various systems and small arms near the villages of Peski and Vodyanoye in the Azov Sea region. Near Starognatovka, separatists fired at the positions of the Ukrainian defenders from automatic heavy grenade launchers.

Not far from the village of Luganskoye, the enemy opened fire from automatic easel grenade launchers and heavy machine guns.

As a result of enemy shelling, one soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was wounded by shrapnel and was hospitalized in a military hospital, where he received the necessary medical assistance. The state of health of the wounded is satisfactory.

Also, in the direction of the village of Zaitsevo, the enemy carried out remote mining from hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers with POM-2 mines.

Since the beginning of the current day, the enemy once violated the ceasefire in Donbass, Ukrainian servicemen were not injured, the press center of the Joint Forces operation headquarters said.

It is noted that near the village of Mayorskoye mercenaries opened fire from small arms, hand-held anti-tank and under-barrel grenade launchers.

Recall that 15 attacks were recorded in the Donbas on April 8, a soldier was killed.

 

[Turko]

OSCE announced more frequent cases of "jamming" of UAV missions in Donbass

OSCE drones are jammed in Donbass

For the first time since the SMM began operations in eastern Ukraine, it was not possible to lift the drone due to signal obstructions.

They tried to jam the OSCE drone in the Donbass, which created an emergency situation for the device. A new such case was recently announced in a special monitoring mission, Radio Liberty reports.

"Electronic obstruction of the operation of a long-range unmanned vehicle, which interfered with the signal of both GPS satellite positioning modules at once, led to the need for its emergency landing. Now the device will require a full technical inspection before it can be used again. During the flight, which lasted from 20 hours On April 8, until the emergency landing at 2:31 am on April 9, the unmanned vehicle experienced such obstacles several times, "the message says.

The OSCE SMM also announced similar cases on 7 April. On that day, the mission's drone had signal obstructions while it was preparing to fly at ground level, which prevented its safe operation.

"For the first time since then, the mission began operating a long-range UAV in October 2014, it was not possible to raise the drone due to signal obstructions," the message said.

Long-range drones, the mission says, are critical to the fulfillment of its mandate, especially for surveillance at night or in areas where movement of mission members is obstructed.

The OSCE SMM also noted that its long-range drones were also exposed to significant signal obstructions of one or both GPS modules during regular flights over the past two months, these obstacles have become especially intensified after March 21.

The publication also reports on reports by military and public investigators that recently a new Russian electronic warfare technique has appeared in the uncontrolled part of eastern Ukraine, in particular, designed to suppress the work of drones at a great distance.

 

[Ryder]

What is Ukraine waiting for!!

 

[Turko]

What is Ukraine waiting for!!

Ukraine's aim is to suppress the separatists in Don-Bass region, to ensure that they do not advance.

Ukraine doesn't intend to liberate Don-Bass region as well as Crimea.


Russian jammers against drones could be example for us.

 

[Turko]

Pulling of Russian troops near the border: Reuters named the target


Russia deliberately moves tanks in the daytime

The war is not being prepared that way, it is just a show of force, a source close to the Kremlin and the separatists told reporters.

The Russian Federation is building up forces near the Ukrainian border for a "deliberate display of force." This is reported by Reuters, citing a source close to the Kremlin and separatists in the Donbass said.

The agency notes that the recent deployment of equipment near the Ukrainian border, captured on video this week, is what a source close to the Kremlin has called a "deliberate display of force" amid mounting tensions.

"Moscow is doing it openly, deliberately revealing tanks in the daytime. This is not how war is being prepared, this is just a show of force," a source told the agency.

 

[Kartal1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380917806640812037

 

[Turko]

The first time Turkish drones visit eastern Ukraine - media


the strike UAV flew from the southern part of Ukraine through the Kherson, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov regions.

Turkish attack drones Bayraktar TB2 first visited the skies over the eastern part of Ukraine. This was announced by the Ukrainian Militar Portal on Saturday, April 10.

It is indicated that the strike UAV flew from the southern part of Ukraine through the Kherson, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov regions. Then, on the return route, I returned to the take-off point. The mission of the drone is unknown.

At the end of March, these unmanned aerial vehicles were used over the Black Sea, in the area of the Tendrovskaya Spit, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine has a training ground.

And in November last year, these drones also participated in the strategic exercises Joint Efforts 2020. Then the army officers worked out the interaction of drones with the Hurricane multiple launch rocket systems and the Alder missile system. Also, tasks were worked out in cooperation with ground attack and naval aviation.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380917808054304770

 

[TR_123456]

to secure water sources

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380935802331484162

President Erdogan: "(with Ukraine), we have initiated consultations on a new platform in two plus two formats with the participation of our foreign and defense ministers by taking into account the connection of political and defense issues."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380936091524608010