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While your analysis is quite good
I think it is more deeper than that tbh
A really famous quote from Putin was "if war is inevitable, you always got to strike first"
One of Putin's modus operandi in the region is that if Russia is poor then the surrounding states must be poorer, if Russia is corrupt then the surrounding states must be more corrupt, if Russia has a weak military then the surrounding states must have an even weaker military
Ever since Zelensky took office and he promised reforms and new military programs to re-inforce Ukraine's military after the annexation in 2014; ever since Zelensky's arrival and there were several alarms in Russia and within the Kremlin. Putin was scared on the notion that 20 years in the future and Ukraine may retake their annexed territories (Crimea and Donbass) by force; thus, increasing their prospects of joining NATO with all of their lands and an even more decent army on Russia's doorsteps. Putin cant improve his nations conditions further as he couldnt tackle the corruption introduced by the Oligarchs but Zelensky may have a chance (albeit a small one)
That is why Putin was conducting some sort of litmus tests every now and then by having Donbass separatists shell Ukrainian positions every month or two in order to check Ukraine's response. Finally, Putin's fears came true when Zelensky used TB2s to strike Donbass separatists positions after they shelled the Ukrainian army's positions. This was a sign that 20 to 30 years into future and Zelensky will take back his territory just like how Azerbaijan did it
That is why he followed his saying: "If war is inevitable, you got to strike first" and this is what he did. However, he made many mistakes the primary being the fact that he thought Ukrainians will welcome the Russians even though the coup in 2014 was done because the people are fed up with Soviet mentality and being puppets of Russia
An extra bonus Putin thought he would get is that he would inject fresh blood into the already aging Russian and Soviet population
Ofcourse no matter how noble Putin's ambitions may be towards his nation, by no means is it a justification for screwing the lives and future of nations all across the globe. It isnt Ukraine's fault that Russia is corrupt and it isnt Ukraine's fault that Putin cant improve his nation and free it from chronic Oligarchs' corruption. Therefore, Putin's war in Ukraine is not justified, and is nothing short of a genoicde towards a neighbouring nation just so that the Russians can live in peace with a soviet-like mentality even if Putin wants the Russians to think like that; but what can I say..... we shouldnt expect more from a loyal KGB spy
Now I can understand why the Soviet Union failed
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