The forgiving of $4.7 billion was actually quite interesting. Two days ago, Sen Rand Paul (a senator who McCain once accused on the Senate floor, verbatim, of working for the Russians) introduced legislation to block Biden from forgiving these $4.7 billion. He got the needed signatures for it that same day and it went up for a vote yesterday evening. It was defeated 61-37.
Rand Paul frequently introduces legislation that has no chance of passing, this being one such case. Instead, this legislation is meant to be used as ammunition in the future to attack those Senators who voted against it. But we can also use it to draw conclusions about the state of support for Ukraine in the Senate. 10 Republicans voted with all Democrats to defeat it. Sen Marco Rubio, presumably the next secretary of state, votes yes. Sen Thune, who will be the next Senate Majority Leader, also voted yes. That said, Lindsay Graham, who is an ardent supporter of Ukraine in his own way, also voted yes. Representatives have more leeway to vote against their beliefs but in a way that helps them politically if they know a bill will fail regardless of how they vote.
I don't think there will be another Ukraine aid Supplemental in the near future. There's not enough political support for one. However, I suspect Congress will quietly add smaller amounts of Ukraine aid to the NDAA (the National Defense Authorization Act, the overall budget for the American military).
Rand Paul is a noted Libertarian and his primary goal in Congress is to limit / cut government spending. He's the definition of a "small government" Republican that believes in budget cuts and fiscal responsibility. I actually don't think he has anything against Ukraine, he simply fights against U.S. spending that is unfunded. It's not a surprise that he tried to stop the Biden Government from forgiving the loan. Paul is a loan wolf of sorts, but he usually gets some support for the legislation he tries to push.
I do agree with you that Congress won't pass another supplemental bill for Ukraine. Not with Republicans in control of the Presidency and both chambers of Congress. That's why's it's so imperative that Biden not waste the remaining $4.05 Billion usd worth of PDA that was authorized in the spring, as well as the $2.5'ish Billion in PDA that exists as product of the Pentagon pricing items incorrectly. They also need to enter into contracts with defense contractors for the remaining $2.1 Billion usd worth of USAI in the coming weeks, to ensure that the Trump Government doesn't let that money go to waste.
As far as funding goes moving forward, the most important money in play is the $20 Billion usd that USA has promised Ukraine as part of the loan from the G7 that will be paid off using the interest garnered from frozen Russian assets passed by the West. Biden's government is working hard to release that money before Trump's team enters office and pulls out of the deal... Why is the release of those funds so important? Trump is a lot of things, but chief among them is the fact that he's a business man. I HIGHLY doubt that he stops Ukraine from purchasing weapons from American manufacturers using the $50 Billion usd worth of fresh cash they'll have. He's not going to cause American defense contractors to lose out on that money, while the European defense contractors get it all. So while the USA
won't be giving any more PDA type items from existing inventories, Ukraine will still be able to procure quite a bit of American weaponry and ammunition. The drawback, of course, is that they will no longer get American military kit at the depreciated prices that PDA promotes.
Time for Europe to step up and meet the moment, with help from countries like Canada
Japan
and Australia
who need to continue pitching in. Europe has many of the largest economies in the world. Japan and Canada are both in the top 10, while Australia isn't far behind in the top 15. Even some of the smaller countries such as Norway
, Denmark
and Finland
are rather wealthy and capable of helping economically over the long run. Together, those countries dwarf Russia's spending power, it's simply a matter of political will to fund Ukraine at the level it needs to grind Russia's armor down and stalemate the war into negotiations that are reasonably favorable to Ukraine.