TR Politics

[dBSPL]

So, in a nutshell who has more chance for now?
Alliance A? Alliance B? Or Alliance C?
@dBSPL

In 'my personal opinion', if the candidate of the B alliance (based on the example of Yavaş) makes it to the second round, they will most probably win the race. If the candidate of alliance A makes it to the second round(i mean Kılıcdaroğlu), Erdoğan will most probably win. In a first round election with 3 candidates, no candidate can reach 50%+1.

 

[Anmdt]

So, in a nutshell who has more chance for now?
Alliance A? Alliance B? Or Alliance C?
@dBSPL

Doesn't matter.

 

[Lool]

The table of 6 was flawed from the beginning. İyi Parti was the best thing that happened to it. But it was always apparent that Deva and Gelecek would side with Kilicdaroglu.

Most people were hoping that Akşener's influence would not allow this to happen.

There is 3 scenarios now:

1. KK stays as the candidate and the RTE wins once again
2. They backpedal and end up choosing Yavaş instead and most likely win
3. İyi Parti forms an alliance with ZP and MP with Muharrem İnce as the most likely candidate... This could go either way. This new alliance could work in conjunction with the other alliance.

In my opinion this is pure sabotage. No one in their right mind would pick KK as the candidate.

Simply because no one is going to take responsibility. It was quite clear that KK would become the candidate

Ppl here thinks that as long as Erdogan is gone everything in Turkey will be solved. Hell No! Whoever will rule after Erdogan will face plethora of problems such as Syria, Libya, Egypt, Mavi Vatan, Economy, Justice department, Presidential vs Parliamentary system, and a divided nation

Whoever will come after Erdogan will be under extreme scrutiny and any small mistake will not only screw his career but also throw bpth him and his party into oblivion

That is why neither Imamoglu or Kilicdaroglu want to be the president; hey know very well that any screw up will destroy all the reputation they have. As for the iYi, their strategist is a filthy cunning fox, as their main aim is to become the new AKP by slowly gathering votes behind the scenes! They will never allow themselves to be the new leaders after Erdogan but want to remain close to the new leaders whoever they are so that they can slowly gather votes until the new leaders screw up and they can take over from there!

@dBSPL I think this is a more logical reason for the recent iYi action since if they just wanted to hog all the fame, they would have phrased the reason for why they left the table of the 6 differently. With their current statements, they are trying to put pressure on Imamoglu and Yavas to take the helm and the hit after Erdogan while the iYi controls from behind

 

[Oublious]

People who thought that this is going to run is romantics , we are going back 30 years back koalisyon hukumeti. People are talking about Mansur Yavas, lol in order to win this election you need voters of HDP. And they are not going to vote for that guy. Imamoglu does have is own agenda.

Imagine this 6 captains in 1 ship and this will work?

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

People are talking about Mansur Yavas, lol in order to win this election you need voters of HDP. And they are not going to vote for that guy.

Not true. Mansur Yavaş consistently wins polls. He is easily the most liked politician in Türkiye.

 

[CAN_TR]

HDP voters always voted for AKP instead main opposition candidate, just look at the last elections in 2018...

 

[Rodeo]

View attachment 54576

Doesn't matter.

The only candidate that could coast through the elections was Mansur Yavaş. The opposition is overestimating their hand. They nominate the person who has the least chance of winning against Erdoğan. I, personally, know disturbingly many people who turned against Erdoğan but they'd rather eat dirt and live in barrel than voting for "Kılışdar".

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

The only candidate that could coast through the elections was Mansur Yavaş. The opposition is overestimating their hand. They nominate the person who has the least chance of winning against Erdoğan. I know disturbingly many people who turned against Erdoğan but they'd rather eat dirt and live in barrel than voting for "Kılışdar".

It's probably like @GoatsMilk sometimes said if I'm not mistaken. KK, Erdogan and god know who else all work together...

 

[YeşilVatan]

Akşener saved us from pimps.

Detached CÊXÂP garden tools may screech from their ivory towers about how İYİ sold out, but the truth is that only scenario where Kılıçdaroğlu wins is the one where Erdğan's gay sex tape comes out. And that's not even a certainty. Kılıçdaroğlu would lose and the idiots who forced his run would start posting Aziz Nesin memes the day after.

"WE choose the nominee and YOU vote for him, pleb!" Oh yeah? We got Meral mommy now. Even if we lose, we don't suck off seperatists in the meantime. Our honor is intact.

Things are chaotic now. But with these people in charge, there is a distinct possibility that İYİ candidate may race against Erdoğan in the second part of the elections beause CÊXÂP is so friggin incompetent.

 

[UkroTurk]

Why Akşener left the table? Why?

Did the table oppress her?

Because she didn't believe Kılıçdaroğlu could win?

What about the principals the table stated?

What If Mansur Yavaş and Ekrem İmamoğlu want Kılıçdaroğlu be the candidate?


Akşener knows that if Kılıçdaroğlu is a president , she cant make political bargain with him.

She committed political homicide. Noone will vote for İyi Parti.

Neither Yavaş nor İmamoğlu is a traitor and split the votes against current regime.

I am in Istanbul and here people are ready to vote for slippers instead of current president.

 

[UkroTurk]

View attachment 54576

Doesn't matter.

Now Meral Akşener is against the slippers with Erdoğan. İ also would vote for the slippers instead of current party.

 

[Rodeo]

Now Meral Akşener is against the slippers with Erdoğan. İ also would vote for the slippers instead of current party.

Slippers have more backbone and credibility than KK in the eyes of ex-Akpians and the opposition need their votes to win. Anyone can win against Erdoğan in this climate but Kılıçdaroğlu(or he has the least chance better put).

 

[YeşilVatan]

Why Akşener left the table? Why?

Did the table oppress her?

Because she didn't believe Kılıçdaroğlu could win?

What about the principals the table stated?

What If Mansur Yavaş and Ekrem İmamoğlu want Kılıçdaroğlu be the candidate?


Akşener knows that if Kılıçdaroğlu is a president , she cant make political bargain with him.

She committed political homicide. Noone will vote for İyi Parti.

Neither Yavaş nor İmamoğlu is a traitor and split the votes against current regime.

I am in Istanbul and here people are ready to vote for slippers instead of current president.

1- Because KK forced his andidacy.
2- Kılıçdaroğlu stated that he would not run if even one party objected to his candidacy before.
3- This is the truth. You are going to watch how he messes up the campaign with kavala-demirtaş talk among his other BS.
4- Principles are a sham. CHP wants KK candidacy, smaller parties made deals to get representatives in the parliament.

5- Who says she wants someone to be controlled? Does İmamoğlu or Yavaş seem like controllable people, with all the rights and powers of current presidency?
6- She set the party to be the main opposition. Calling this move political suicide is simply not true.
7- Being against a candidate who will clearly lose is not being a traitor.
8- This slippers talk shows how detached some opposition voters have become from the rest of the country.

Erdoğan can't win this election, unless he runs agains KK. Seems like this will be the case. There were people who were clearly the better candidates, but KK discarded them.

 

[UkroTurk]

Slippers have more backbone and credibility than KK in the eyes of ex-Akpians and the opposition need their votes to win. Anyone can win against Erdoğan in this climate but Kılıçdaroğlu(or he has the least chance better put).

Opposition needs MHPs vote not AKPs.
İ would say half of MHPs votes is enough to Millet ittifak .

Moreover i live in Fatih district which is very conservative, here people are ready to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu, noone discredit Kılıçdaroğlu against Yavaş.

Meral Akşener committed political suicide.

 

[UkroTurk]

5- Who says she wants someone to be controlled? Does İmamoğlu or Yavaş seem like controllable people, with all the rights and powers of current presidency?

I say . Yeah they don't seem to me such people especially Yavaş. But Meral Akşener couldn't see the facts.

Again and again and again how could you know Kılıçdaroğlu will lose?

You all had better listen to Mansur Yavaş and İmamoğlu not to Akşener.

Oppression???

Turhan Çömez: Kılıçdaroğlu, düne kadar Akşener’e adaylıkla ilgili hiçbir şey demedi​

Turhan Çömez: Kılıçdaroğlu, düne kadar Akşener’e adaylıkla ilgili hiçbir şey demedi - Diken

03/03/2023 - İYİ Parti Genel Başkanı Meral Akşener'in baş danışmanı Turhan Çömez, CHP Genel Başkanı Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu'nun adaylık niyetini hiçbir ortamda dile getirmediğini öne sürdü.

www.diken.com.tr

 

[YeşilVatan]

I say . Yeah they don't seem to me such people especially Yavaş. But Meral Akşener couldn't see the facts.

Again and again and again how could you know Kılıçdaroğlu will lose?

You all had better listen to Mansur Yavaş and İmamoğlu not to Akşener.

Oppression???

Turhan Çömez: Kılıçdaroğlu, düne kadar Akşener’e adaylıkla ilgili hiçbir şey demedi​

Turhan Çömez: Kılıçdaroğlu, düne kadar Akşener’e adaylıkla ilgili hiçbir şey demedi - Diken

03/03/2023 - İYİ Parti Genel Başkanı Meral Akşener'in baş danışmanı Turhan Çömez, CHP Genel Başkanı Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu'nun adaylık niyetini hiçbir ortamda dile getirmediğini öne sürdü.

www.diken.com.tr

Read etween the lines bro. KK tried a fait accompli by announcing his candidacy so late. Akşener showed spine by leavig the table.

 

[TheInsider]

KK will be the opposition candidate and will lose to Erdogan in a relatively close election. AKP will lose the majority (AKP will get %28-29 of the votes Erdogan polls higher than his party) in the parliament. Yavaş and Imamoğlu won't be a candidate, they will refuse any offer. Imamoğlu will run for the presidency of CHP after KK loses and resigns as the president of CHP. Yavaş won't be elected again as the mayor. Voters will hold him indirectly responsible for the mess by not becoming the candidate. He might become a member of the parliament in the 2028 parliament elections after he loses the 2024 local elections.

Current polls after every vote is distributed. (undecided, protest votes, people who won't vote, etc.)
Yavaş vs Erdogan %63-65/%35-37 (A big chunk of AKP voters votes for Yavaş a very interesting voter behavior Yavaş got such a big vote from the AKP that it dwarves whatever HDP brings to the table. Polls were showing Yavaş at %58 before the earthquake)
Imamoğlu vs Erdoğan %54-55/%45-46
KK vs Erdogan %48-50/%50-52

Election campaigns will work in Erdogan's favor. Expect Erdogan to gain up to %5 which will also include %1-2 voting shenanigans like unstamped votes, Syrians and other foreigners that are given Turkish IDs (those will bring around 1 million votes) and fake votes, etc. This might put the vote ratio of Yavaş, İmamoglu, and KK at %58, %49, and %43 respectively.

KK versus Erdo will be a relatively close fight but Erdo will win. KK might cling to power claiming he got the highest votes for CHP but the backlash will be huge and it is unlikely.
Imamoğlu and Erdo will be an extremely close fight that might go either way. Things might get violent with this setup.
Yavaş will mop the floor with Erdoğan. Even though Erdo manages to cut down the huge lead of Yavaş. Yavaş will still win with a healthy lead.

BTW as you can guess AKP media outlets are supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu against Meral Akşener like there is no tomorrow.

 

[Rodeo]

BTW as you can guess AKP media outlets are supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu against Meral Akşener like there is no tomorrow.

As it was expected. Erdoğan would love KK to be his sole opponent. It would be a clean victory.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/194067068885278720

The tweet reads: "As long as this gentleman is the head of the CHP, I also praise our situation. Our job is easy."

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

KK will be the opposition candidate and will lose to Erdogan in a relatively close election. AKP will lose the majority (AKP will get %28-29 of the votes Erdogan polls higher than his party) in the parliament. Yavaş and Imamoğlu won't be a candidate, they will refuse any offer. Imamoğlu will run for the presidency of CHP after KK loses and resigns as the president of CHP. Yavaş won't be elected again as the mayor. Voters will hold him indirectly responsible for the mess by not becoming the candidate. He might become a member of the parliament in the 2028 parliament elections after he loses the 2024 local elections.

Current polls after every vote is distributed. (undecided, protest votes, people who won't vote, etc.)
Yavaş vs Erdogan %63-65/%35-37 (A big chunk of AKP voters votes for Yavaş a very interesting voter behavior Yavaş got such a big vote from the AKP that it dwarves whatever HDP brings to the table. Polls were showing Yavaş at %58 before the earthquake)
Imamoğlu vs Erdoğan %54-55/%45-46
KK vs Erdogan %48-50/%50-52

Election campaigns will work in Erdogan's favor. Expect Erdogan to gain up to %5 which will also include %1-2 voting shenanigans like unstamped votes, Syrians and other foreigners that are given Turkish IDs (those will bring around 1 million votes) and fake votes, etc. This might put the vote ratio of Yavaş, İmamoglu, and KK at %58, %49, and %43 respectively.

KK versus Erdo will be a relatively close fight but Erdo will win. KK might cling to power claiming he got the highest votes for CHP but the backlash will be huge and it is unlikely.
Imamoğlu and Erdo will be an extremely close fight that might go either way. Things might get violent with this setup.
Yavaş will mop the floor with Erdoğan. Even though Erdo manages to cut down the huge lead of Yavaş. Yavaş will still win with a healthy lead.

BTW as you can guess AKP media outlets are supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu against Meral Akşener like there is no tomorrow.

If that Yavas guy is so liked, why doesn't he become a candidate? Is the guy pressured/bought by others not to become one? All those different parties feel weird to me. As if they all work together or some shit.

 

[Lool]

Loooool

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631690496404750337