Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

Jackdaws

Experienced member
Messages
1,987
Reaction score
1,015
Nation of residence
India
Nation of origin
India
Yes its quite interesting that natsecjeff has suddenly fallen out of favour among some twit-twat spammers here all of a sudden regarding AFG news. The selective cherry pick continues for the beardo mouthbreathing lovers.

The kind that name themselves after a virus (that has inflicted so much on this world) and hide their flags with western ones completely.

The "intelligence" matches it when the virus-guy larps as "we turk" and then instant translate hindi videos in detail.

Its the stuff right out of a ertugul instagram "heavy intellect" simp horde. The virus name is actually apt one in the end.

That virus-guy did a laugh emote (the only one to do so) on a post about french knife terror attack's victims.

I won't forget that (early formative days of the forum.....and "intellectual heavyweights" like virus-guy made their early mark/spawns)

The depravity and cowardliness (or is it basic morality and honour for another?) of some really know no bounds. They are lost causes to some.....but total winners to others I suppose.

But I suppose we can chat about "thinly veiled racism" and "prejudice" given that still.
It's along expected lines. Reality bites. The apologists for the Taliban treatment of women are like those Americans in the 1800s who defended slavery under the garb of history and cultural reasons.
 
Last edited:

AlphaMike

Experienced member
Moderator
Indonesia Moderator
Messages
2,649
Reaction score
4,697
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
Just to be frank here, this women's protest doesn't hurt the Taliban at all, actually for the long term, it will be intra Jihadists infighting that will present a headache for the Taliban.

And it appears the war continuation has already resumed. 6 explosions killing 30+ Taliban in the last days.

I've warned this long time ago.

here's my opinion.

The rivalry between the moderates and the ultra conservative in Taliban ranks will be even more destructive than TB v ISKP or TB vs national resistance whatsoever.

I based this opinion, based on researcher Tore Hamming research on the dynamics of another infamous jihadi groups, ISIS.


ISIS just like the Taliban, appears to be a coherent and solid group if viewed from the outside, but for people who did research enough like Tore Hamming, there are significant cracks within its ranks. One is the hardzore Hazimiya and the more moderate Binalists faction.

in one such cases in 2017 it results in a less known coups and counter coups in ISIS governorate across Iraq and Syria.

Taliban supporters may portray Taliban as solid groups, but the situation for the Taliban is even more perilous consider the Taliban had not two factions competing for power like ISIS did, it has multiple:

The Taliban move to be more inclusive now included in its ranks:

1.Islamists
2.Nationalists
3.Hanafists
4.Salafists
5.Shia
6.People that just want the US out
7.Al-Qaeda with international jihad agenda
8.groups which limit jihad agenda inside Afghanistan
9. Pashtun
10. Non-Pashtun

not to mention the many international player that will eventually fight, not cooperate for influence in Afghanistan such as:

1. Pakistan
2. Iran
3. China
4. Russia

and many more.

the recent reported killings of Salafists by the Hanafists and closure of Salafists seminary will eventually be the catalyst of conflict buried only by the common enmity against NATO occupation in the past. One such example in the past is the Indonesian independence war which saw former Indonesian independence fighter (communists, islamist and nationalists) turning their guns against each other right after the Dutch left in 1949.

So yeah we'll see where this goes.
 

AlphaMike

Experienced member
Moderator
Indonesia Moderator
Messages
2,649
Reaction score
4,697
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
not to mention the many international player that will eventually fight, not cooperate for influence in Afghanistan such as:

1. Pakistan
2. Iran
3. China
4. Russia

I already make this a point way back when I had an altercation with Dalit.

Basically there's no such thing as regional cooperation, not between equal states.

one such example is the perceived Russo-Iran alliance in Syria. On the surface both seems to be a knitted in a tight alliance against their common enemies the Islamists. But digging down, that's not the case as this research by Abdullah Al-Ghadawi published by the MEI.


I pointed out some shocking news revealed from such alliance.

Through its operatives in Aleppo, Iran instigated sporadic clashes with pro-Russia Syrian elements, as well as elements of the Russian army and the military police, keeping tensions in Aleppo on a boil until the Russian military police left.

Throughout 2017 and until mid-2018, there were clashes in the city between Russia on one side and the forces of Iran and the Syrian regime on the other.

In forging ahead with its restructuring project, Russia expelled Iran’s proxies, including Brig. Gen. Ghassan Bilal, director of the office of Maher al-Assad and the head of the Fourth Armored Division’s security office. In 2018, he was transferred to the Southern Region Command. Moreover, the director of the Electronic War College was dismissed, and Sami Mahla was appointed in the general recruitment department. Russia also worked on dismantling several Iranian militias to ease the marginalization of the Syrian army. Among these disbanded groups was the Abu al-Fadl militia, which was later handed over to the Fifth Corps. Similarly, Russia dismantled the Qalamoun Shield militia — which was led by Firas Jaza’ah, who in turn was funded by Iran and accused of crimes against civilians — and dissolved the Ba’ath Brigades led by Jihad Barakat, one of Iran’s operatives.

Later, the Russians began to clash with Iranian-backed Alawite militias, after realizing that the drones targeting their military base in Hmeimim came from the village of Basta in Latakia. The drones were launched from an old battery factory belonging to Jihad Barakat, an NDF figure wanted by the Russians for allegedly committing crimes and acts of corruption. Consequently, Russia moved to dissolve his militia and pursue him, forcing him to flee to Lebanon, where he lives under the protection of Hezbollah.


Now imagine what cooperation will look like from having 4 different powers, each with their own loyalists inside Taliban structure. (y)
 

Nilgiri

Seasoned Veteran
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Canada Moderator
India Moderator
Messages
4,770
Reaction score
9,381
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
Now imagine what cooperation will look like from having 4 different powers, each with their own loyalists inside Taliban structure. (y)

The issue seems to have pre-existed within ANA as well.

US tried an approach of clean slate + stitching this stuff together and it failed pretty spectacularly in the end.

Similar to approach they took with disbanding Iraqi army completely and what those (now unemployed) folks went on to form and do.

They should have likely left a tribal militia thing going on in AFG.....cooperate/assist with each individually and form ANA perimeters for maybe Kabul and critical nodes

....so when you pack and leave (and leave a solid remnant maybe for Kabul and nodes)....they (militias) have greater individual resistance to anyone trying to take over the entirety again....and some form of trust you have built with each.

US did too much of the national reimagining along a western nationstate paradigm IMO. Money, time, effort wasted and worse promises inflated to lot of genuine folks.
 

AlphaMike

Experienced member
Moderator
Indonesia Moderator
Messages
2,649
Reaction score
4,697
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
The issue seems to have pre-existed within ANA as well.

US tried an approach of clean slate + stitching this stuff together and it failed pretty spectacularly in the end.

Similar to approach they took with disbanding Iraqi army completely and what those (now unemployed) folks went on to form and do.

They should have likely left a tribal militia thing going on in AFG.....cooperate/assist with each individually and form ANA perimeters for maybe Kabul and critical nodes

....so when you pack and leave (and leave a solid remnant maybe for Kabul and nodes)....they (militias) have greater individual resistance to anyone trying to take over the entirety again....and some form of trust you have built with each.

US did too much of the national reimagining along a western nationstate paradigm IMO. Money, time, effort wasted and worse promises inflated to lot of genuine folks.
What the US did in Afghanistan is and will be a matter of intensive debate and criticism.

But no denying that standard of living are much better under the occupation. Compared that to the Soviet, Taliban 90s rule.

People could go to school, work , buy a house, car and everything. Now it's interesting if the regional actors could offer the same.
 

Jackdaws

Experienced member
Messages
1,987
Reaction score
1,015
Nation of residence
India
Nation of origin
India
What the US did in Afghanistan is and will be a matter of intensive debate and criticism.

But no denying that standard of living are much better under the occupation. Compared that to the Soviet, Taliban 90s rule.

People could go to school, work , buy a house, car and everything. Now it's interesting if the regional actors could offer the same.
Was it really an occupation in the sense of Nazi occupation of France with a puppet Vichy regime or is it more in the league of McArthur being a veto in Japan but not really meddling in day-day affairs?
 

AlphaMike

Experienced member
Moderator
Indonesia Moderator
Messages
2,649
Reaction score
4,697
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
Was it really an occupation in the sense of Nazi occupation of France with a puppet Vichy regime or is it more in the league of McArthur being a veto in Japan but not really meddling in day-day affairs?
none of the above.
 

AlphaMike

Experienced member
Moderator
Indonesia Moderator
Messages
2,649
Reaction score
4,697
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
the new phase of war had just begun


so basically it's like this:

Phase 1 : 1978-1989 (Saur revolution + Soviet occupation)
phase 2 : 1989-1992 (Afghan mujahideen civil war)
Phase 3 : 1992-2001 (Taliban vs Northern alliance)
Phase 4 : 2001-2021 (US occupation)
Phase 5 : 2021- now (Taliban vs ISKP)

that's 43 years and counting :oops:.
 

AlphaMike

Experienced member
Moderator
Indonesia Moderator
Messages
2,649
Reaction score
4,697
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia

Jackdaws

Experienced member
Messages
1,987
Reaction score
1,015
Nation of residence
India
Nation of origin
India

“Before this, I was just fighting jihad,” the 30-year-old said, boasting of his battlefield credentials. “I fought in many different provinces in Afghanistan and in Pakistan. We also trained in Pakistan, and fought against the Pakistani army.”


the Taliban are supposed to be Pakistani project, I challenged this long time ago @Nilgiri

Which kinda is bizarre given the support for the Taliban in Pakistan. So do the Pakistanis support the Taliban over their own army?
 

Nilgiri

Seasoned Veteran
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Canada Moderator
India Moderator
Messages
4,770
Reaction score
9,381
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India

“Before this, I was just fighting jihad,” the 30-year-old said, boasting of his battlefield credentials. “I fought in many different provinces in Afghanistan and in Pakistan. We also trained in Pakistan, and fought against the Pakistani army.”


the Taliban are supposed to be Pakistani project, I challenged this long time ago @Nilgiri

Supposed is the key operative word.

Pakistan has a storied history of nurture, unleash and blowback on itself....w.r.t the why's and hows of the objective resolutions (euphemism to carry water for islamism of the draconian majoritarian variety) done after the founding father died (when he and a specific group of those like him were the best chance to guide the formative process in crucial early years).

The problem is the scope and intent of the nurture stage crucially in that it is inevitably done in a blockheaded angst and bile-ridden short-term way.....with little to no deference (or maybe understanding) given to what exists in longer timeframes (like the intricacies involved with the pathan-sphere existing across the durrand line).

In the end, this is a circling the (same ole) drain phenomenon (in this soon to be 250 million people entity) that only @VCheng can properly (IMO) give a one line summary (out of his greater resignation to it than I could ever dream to have) about.

I on other hand (when occasional time permits or event calls for) prefer to read/observe the salt mine in other places.

This forum like Zeus sprang forth from Cronus....but I do remember Cronus you see...in fact a good deal about him....and I watch him still, imprisoned in a Tartarus of his own mind....for he had his good and bad ....and to me at least, the bad has won in the end...yet the good torments him so.

In his mind's many dark chambers rest things like the TTP's actions (going on now)...and how persistent voices call for a complete genocide in Waziristan. How other pashtoonglish (as vcheng pointed out to me funnily the one time) voices of the birdbrain vulture vendetta variety then nullify such with quick easy progressive "pink"...in an "all ij well"....trying to outdo baghdad bob I suppose....maybe Peshawar Peter works?

Its not like Pakistan is stranger to this in most brazen way, it lost half its population (inherited by the founding father's principle).....again with the voice of knee-jerk genocide winning out because of gaslighting squelching of any smallest canary that warned it.

No other country, NOT ONE.... has done so in this most unnecessary, clumsy and evil of ways in such short order....to itself.

So you see the psychological remnants occur in "people" naming themselves after viruses here and "🤣" emote spamming over the sickest, stupidest things again and again....and lo and behold its two-flags in the West....of course of course *head nods*.

That meme of the cry-laugh just scratches the surface of whats going on inside the head of such a person....what the mere word India does to such a pile of wonderful enriched manure...

...after all you can imagine it given what happened in Dhaka...out on the maidan for the world to see....and the weakest flimsiest of stamps plead for resolution away from angry takfiri mobs baying for the blood of the pure chosen ones.

No other country today has to live with it and let it fester in the ego built up and the ego thus diminished and irreversibly chastised so....and at such cost....and at the hands of the pagan (and takfiri ally) whom the supposed sky god does not favour.

AFG is just latched onto it in unholy inertia....and competing with other unholy inertias in other directions to west and north.

It thus cannot access a coastline to try "get away" in some basic measure.....it is stuck with itself, its own problems and doubly burdened with problems of those around it....as they see fit to impose on it at whatever cost to it and themselves.

Most of the vicious cut-throat barbaric types (and all variants thereof) more generally are nurtured in landlocked places I have found (at least in the massive continent of Asia, across its time and space)....and then they unleashed at various times on larger civilisation hearths at consequence you can fill up time reading history about.

Even in India I find a difference between those states with calming expanse of coastline compared to more landlocked ones....where a psyche grows and festers much more.

Anyway sorry about the rant....I'll revisit the thread a lot later maybe.
 

Tonil

Active member
Messages
100
Reaction score
269
Nation of residence
Belgium
Nation of origin
Qatar
here's my opinion.

The rivalry between the moderates and the ultra conservative in Taliban ranks will be even more destructive than TB v ISKP or TB vs national resistance whatsoever.

I based this opinion, based on researcher Tore Hamming research on the dynamics of another infamous jihadi groups, ISIS.


ISIS just like the Taliban, appears to be a coherent and solid group if viewed from the outside, but for people who did research enough like Tore Hamming, there are significant cracks within its ranks. One is the hardzore Hazimiya and the more moderate Binalists faction.

in one such cases in 2017 it results in a less known coups and counter coups in ISIS governorate across Iraq and Syria.

Taliban supporters may portray Taliban as solid groups, but the situation for the Taliban is even more perilous consider the Taliban had not two factions competing for power like ISIS did, it has multiple:

The Taliban move to be more inclusive now included in its ranks:

1.Islamists
2.Nationalists
3.Hanafists
4.Salafists
5.Shia
6.People that just want the US out
7.Al-Qaeda with international jihad agenda
8.groups which limit jihad agenda inside Afghanistan
9. Pashtun
10. Non-Pashtun

not to mention the many international player that will eventually fight, not cooperate for influence in Afghanistan such as:

1. Pakistan
2. Iran
3. China
4. Russia

and many more.

the recent reported killings of Salafists by the Hanafists and closure of Salafists seminary will eventually be the catalyst of conflict buried only by the common enmity against NATO occupation in the past. One such example in the past is the Indonesian independence war which saw former Indonesian independence fighter (communists, islamist and nationalists) turning their guns against each other right after the Dutch left in 1949.

So yeah we'll see where this goes.

Your analysis is like waiting for rain on a desert where it didn't rain for forever. The Dust has settled in Afghanistan for good.

If the Americans in 20 years failed with great effort nobody in their right minds want to do anything with Afghanistan or Taliban. There is no local power to chellenge them which is why the US came in the first place and no foreign entity is willing to pay the heavy price in engaging them on a cancerous terrain meaning the dust has settled in Afghanistan. I am even baffled why this has a live-conflict tag now.

If you don't like Afghanistan or IEA it is best to just cut your losses short and move along and don't waste your time here. The more you forget about Afghanistan the better for you and your health. This is a wrap and undoable no need to further waste your precious time
 
Last edited:
Top Bottom