Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

Nilgiri

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Now imagine what cooperation will look like from having 4 different powers, each with their own loyalists inside Taliban structure. (y)

The issue seems to have pre-existed within ANA as well.

US tried an approach of clean slate + stitching this stuff together and it failed pretty spectacularly in the end.

Similar to approach they took with disbanding Iraqi army completely and what those (now unemployed) folks went on to form and do.

They should have likely left a tribal militia thing going on in AFG.....cooperate/assist with each individually and form ANA perimeters for maybe Kabul and critical nodes

....so when you pack and leave (and leave a solid remnant maybe for Kabul and nodes)....they (militias) have greater individual resistance to anyone trying to take over the entirety again....and some form of trust you have built with each.

US did too much of the national reimagining along a western nationstate paradigm IMO. Money, time, effort wasted and worse promises inflated to lot of genuine folks.
 

Gary

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The issue seems to have pre-existed within ANA as well.

US tried an approach of clean slate + stitching this stuff together and it failed pretty spectacularly in the end.

Similar to approach they took with disbanding Iraqi army completely and what those (now unemployed) folks went on to form and do.

They should have likely left a tribal militia thing going on in AFG.....cooperate/assist with each individually and form ANA perimeters for maybe Kabul and critical nodes

....so when you pack and leave (and leave a solid remnant maybe for Kabul and nodes)....they (militias) have greater individual resistance to anyone trying to take over the entirety again....and some form of trust you have built with each.

US did too much of the national reimagining along a western nationstate paradigm IMO. Money, time, effort wasted and worse promises inflated to lot of genuine folks.
What the US did in Afghanistan is and will be a matter of intensive debate and criticism.

But no denying that standard of living are much better under the occupation. Compared that to the Soviet, Taliban 90s rule.

People could go to school, work , buy a house, car and everything. Now it's interesting if the regional actors could offer the same.
 

Jackdaws

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What the US did in Afghanistan is and will be a matter of intensive debate and criticism.

But no denying that standard of living are much better under the occupation. Compared that to the Soviet, Taliban 90s rule.

People could go to school, work , buy a house, car and everything. Now it's interesting if the regional actors could offer the same.
Was it really an occupation in the sense of Nazi occupation of France with a puppet Vichy regime or is it more in the league of McArthur being a veto in Japan but not really meddling in day-day affairs?
 

Gary

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the new phase of war had just begun


so basically it's like this:

Phase 1 : 1978-1989 (Saur revolution + Soviet occupation)
phase 2 : 1989-1992 (Afghan mujahideen civil war)
Phase 3 : 1992-2001 (Taliban vs Northern alliance)
Phase 4 : 2001-2021 (US occupation)
Phase 5 : 2021- now (Taliban vs ISKP)

that's 43 years and counting :oops:.
 

Gary

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Jackdaws

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“Before this, I was just fighting jihad,” the 30-year-old said, boasting of his battlefield credentials. “I fought in many different provinces in Afghanistan and in Pakistan. We also trained in Pakistan, and fought against the Pakistani army.”


the Taliban are supposed to be Pakistani project, I challenged this long time ago @Nilgiri

Which kinda is bizarre given the support for the Taliban in Pakistan. So do the Pakistanis support the Taliban over their own army?
 

Nilgiri

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“Before this, I was just fighting jihad,” the 30-year-old said, boasting of his battlefield credentials. “I fought in many different provinces in Afghanistan and in Pakistan. We also trained in Pakistan, and fought against the Pakistani army.”


the Taliban are supposed to be Pakistani project, I challenged this long time ago @Nilgiri

Supposed is the key operative word.

Pakistan has a storied history of nurture, unleash and blowback on itself....w.r.t the why's and hows of the objective resolutions (euphemism to carry water for islamism of the draconian majoritarian variety) done after the founding father died (when he and a specific group of those like him were the best chance to guide the formative process in crucial early years).

The problem is the scope and intent of the nurture stage crucially in that it is inevitably done in a blockheaded angst and bile-ridden short-term way.....with little to no deference (or maybe understanding) given to what exists in longer timeframes (like the intricacies involved with the pathan-sphere existing across the durrand line).

In the end, this is a circling the (same ole) drain phenomenon (in this soon to be 250 million people entity) that only @VCheng can properly (IMO) give a one line summary (out of his greater resignation to it than I could ever dream to have) about.

I on other hand (when occasional time permits or event calls for) prefer to read/observe the salt mine in other places.

This forum like Zeus sprang forth from Cronus....but I do remember Cronus you see...in fact a good deal about him....and I watch him still, imprisoned in a Tartarus of his own mind....for he had his good and bad ....and to me at least, the bad has won in the end...yet the good torments him so.

In his mind's many dark chambers rest things like the TTP's actions (going on now)...and how persistent voices call for a complete genocide in Waziristan. How other pashtoonglish (as vcheng pointed out to me funnily the one time) voices of the birdbrain vulture vendetta variety then nullify such with quick easy progressive "pink"...in an "all ij well"....trying to outdo baghdad bob I suppose....maybe Peshawar Peter works?

Its not like Pakistan is stranger to this in most brazen way, it lost half its population (inherited by the founding father's principle).....again with the voice of knee-jerk genocide winning out because of gaslighting squelching of any smallest canary that warned it.

No other country, NOT ONE.... has done so in this most unnecessary, clumsy and evil of ways in such short order....to itself.

So you see the psychological remnants occur in "people" naming themselves after viruses here and "🤣" emote spamming over the sickest, stupidest things again and again....and lo and behold its two-flags in the West....of course of course *head nods*.

That meme of the cry-laugh just scratches the surface of whats going on inside the head of such a person....what the mere word India does to such a pile of wonderful enriched manure...

...after all you can imagine it given what happened in Dhaka...out on the maidan for the world to see....and the weakest flimsiest of stamps plead for resolution away from angry takfiri mobs baying for the blood of the pure chosen ones.

No other country today has to live with it and let it fester in the ego built up and the ego thus diminished and irreversibly chastised so....and at such cost....and at the hands of the pagan (and takfiri ally) whom the supposed sky god does not favour.

AFG is just latched onto it in unholy inertia....and competing with other unholy inertias in other directions to west and north.

It thus cannot access a coastline to try "get away" in some basic measure.....it is stuck with itself, its own problems and doubly burdened with problems of those around it....as they see fit to impose on it at whatever cost to it and themselves.

Most of the vicious cut-throat barbaric types (and all variants thereof) more generally are nurtured in landlocked places I have found (at least in the massive continent of Asia, across its time and space)....and then they unleashed at various times on larger civilisation hearths at consequence you can fill up time reading history about.

Even in India I find a difference between those states with calming expanse of coastline compared to more landlocked ones....where a psyche grows and festers much more.

Anyway sorry about the rant....I'll revisit the thread a lot later maybe.
 

Tonil

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here's my opinion.

The rivalry between the moderates and the ultra conservative in Taliban ranks will be even more destructive than TB v ISKP or TB vs national resistance whatsoever.

I based this opinion, based on researcher Tore Hamming research on the dynamics of another infamous jihadi groups, ISIS.


ISIS just like the Taliban, appears to be a coherent and solid group if viewed from the outside, but for people who did research enough like Tore Hamming, there are significant cracks within its ranks. One is the hardzore Hazimiya and the more moderate Binalists faction.

in one such cases in 2017 it results in a less known coups and counter coups in ISIS governorate across Iraq and Syria.

Taliban supporters may portray Taliban as solid groups, but the situation for the Taliban is even more perilous consider the Taliban had not two factions competing for power like ISIS did, it has multiple:

The Taliban move to be more inclusive now included in its ranks:

1.Islamists
2.Nationalists
3.Hanafists
4.Salafists
5.Shia
6.People that just want the US out
7.Al-Qaeda with international jihad agenda
8.groups which limit jihad agenda inside Afghanistan
9. Pashtun
10. Non-Pashtun

not to mention the many international player that will eventually fight, not cooperate for influence in Afghanistan such as:

1. Pakistan
2. Iran
3. China
4. Russia

and many more.

the recent reported killings of Salafists by the Hanafists and closure of Salafists seminary will eventually be the catalyst of conflict buried only by the common enmity against NATO occupation in the past. One such example in the past is the Indonesian independence war which saw former Indonesian independence fighter (communists, islamist and nationalists) turning their guns against each other right after the Dutch left in 1949.

So yeah we'll see where this goes.

Your analysis is like waiting for rain on a desert where it didn't rain for forever. The Dust has settled in Afghanistan for good.

If the Americans in 20 years failed with great effort nobody in their right minds want to do anything with Afghanistan or Taliban. There is no local power to chellenge them which is why the US came in the first place and no foreign entity is willing to pay the heavy price in engaging them on a cancerous terrain meaning the dust has settled in Afghanistan. I am even baffled why this has a live-conflict tag now.

If you don't like Afghanistan or IEA it is best to just cut your losses short and move along and don't waste your time here. The more you forget about Afghanistan the better for you and your health. This is a wrap and undoable no need to further waste your precious time
 
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Tonil

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E_d3kzQUUAMVsQI

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Gary

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Your analysis is like waiting for rain on a desert where it didn't rain for forever.
actually if you follow my predictions earlier, most of it turned out to be true.

I had an altercation with Dalit, basically denying him his wet dreams of a "regional player" teaming up to build Afghanistan.
you could check it here, this is back in July [source] [source]

turns out it's becoming reality, with Iran busy bashing Pakistan for the defeat of the Northern alliance

I told earlier with @Jackdaws that the "regional actors" would continue to fund the Taliban on "humanitarian grounds", which is actually only enough to prevent Taliban to carry out/facilitate attacks in their country. Now it appears that China is doing just that.

when I told people here that factions WILL compete for power, the Taliban wasted no time to prove just that.


The Dust has settled in Afghanistan for good.
Actually no, the next phase of war had just begun. You should read the latest news regarding the Taliban. as I correctly predicted it's between Taliban and ISKP


that's 43 years of non stop war and counting for you.
If the Americans in 20 years failed with great effort nobody in their right minds want to do anything with Afghanistan or Taliban. There is no local power to chellenge them which is why the US came in the first place and no foreign entity is willing to pay the heavy price in engaging them on a cancerous terrain meaning the dust has settled in Afghanistan. I am even baffled why this has a live-conflict tag now.

do you know that the collapsed Afghan govt used to be the insurgents fighting a winning battle against the central (communists) govt??

in fact the latest Taliban move could very well be the source of regret, the same way the US regret why they don't finish T'ban in the earlier days of war.

No visibel conflicts =/= the end of the war, during the NATO occupation, life actually goes on as usual, people goes to school, work etc.

Basically the Taliban now are NATO while ISIS is now playing the Taliban.

So yeah that's live conflicts for you.
If you don't like Afghanistan or IEA it is best to just cut your losses short and move along and don't waste your time here. The more you forget about Afghanistan the better for you and your health. This is a wrap and undoable no need to further waste your precious time

YOU Tonil, are in no position to tell me that.

I express opinion with citations, why don't you tell your spammer here to stop promoting sales of caligraphy.
 
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